Hurricane KARL

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HURRICANE KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122004
0300Z SUN SEP 19 2004
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  41.3W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  41.3W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  40.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.6N  42.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.4N  44.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.2N  46.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.3N  48.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.0N  49.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 28.0N  48.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 34.0N  44.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N  41.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
 
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