Hurricane JEANNE

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HURRICANE JEANNE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112004
0900Z THU SEP 23 2004
 
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN 36 HR.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER
TODAY.
 
INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND ON THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N  69.5W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  966 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..540NE 420SE 420SW 600NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N  69.5W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N  69.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.4N  70.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.4N  72.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 25.6N  74.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 26.0N  75.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 27.0N  79.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 110SW 140NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 29.5N  81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 34.0N  80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N  69.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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