Hurricane JEANNE

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TROPICAL STORM JEANNE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112004
0900Z SAT SEP 18 2004
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...
MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR.
 
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N  72.6W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N  72.6W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N  72.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.4N  73.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 22.4N  73.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  20SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.8N  73.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 25.5N  73.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 27.5N  73.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 28.0N  73.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 28.5N  74.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N  72.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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