Hurricane JEANNE

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TROPICAL STORM JEANNE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112004
2100Z THU SEP 16 2004
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING AND WATCH FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.   THESE HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA FROM
LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS HAITI EASTWARD TO SANTO DOMINGO.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE
INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN
SALVADOR.
 
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N  69.3W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N  69.3W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  69.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.5N  70.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.4N  72.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.4N  73.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.5N  75.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 25.0N  77.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 28.5N  78.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 32.0N  80.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N  69.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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