Hurricane JEANNE

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HURRICANE JEANNE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112004
1500Z THU SEP 16 2004
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.
 
AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ALSO ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT
ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM
PUERTO PLATA TO ISLA SAONA.
 
AT 11 AM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE NORTH
COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD.  A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM
LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS TO WEST OF PUERTO PLATA...AND FROM ISLA SAONA
TO SANTO DOMINGO.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM WEST OF PUERTO PLATA WESTWARD TO MONTE
CRISTO AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM
ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO SANTO DOMINGO.
 
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  68.7W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 70NE  70SE   0SW  70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  68.7W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N  68.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.3N  70.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.2N  71.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  30SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.1N  73.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.0N  75.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.5N  76.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 26.5N  78.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 30.0N  79.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N  68.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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