Tropical Storm JEANNE

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TROPICAL STORM JEANNE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112004
2100Z WED SEP 15 2004
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...AND ALONG
THE EASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABRERA SOUTHWARD
TO ISLA SAONA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABRERA
TO PUERTO PLATA...AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO SANTO DOMINGO.  A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
WARNINGS FOR ST. KITTS AND NEVIS.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE U. S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N  66.5W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N  66.5W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N  66.2W...OVER LAND
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.8N  67.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.7N  69.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.6N  70.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 21.6N  72.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.5N  74.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  30SW  45NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 26.0N  76.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 29.5N  77.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N  66.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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