Tropical Storm JEANNE

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TROPICAL STORM JEANNE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112004
1500Z TUE SEP 14 2004
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST.
KITTS...AND NEVIS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST.
MARTEEN...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS.
 
AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR ANGUILLA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  63.1W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE  15SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  63.1W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N  62.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.3N  64.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.3N  66.3W...INLAND OVER PUERTO RICO
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  25SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.2N  68.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  25SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 20.0N  69.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 21.2N  71.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  25NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 22.5N  73.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 24.5N  75.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N  63.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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