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Tropical Depression ELEVEN


ZCZC MIATCMAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112004
0300Z TUE SEP 14 2004
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS... SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MARTEEN.
 
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE
NORTHEN LESSER ANTILLES TO THE NORTH OF GUADELOUPE.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  61.2W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  61.2W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  60.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.7N  62.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.5N  64.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.4N  66.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.3N  67.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 21.0N  69.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 22.7N  71.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 24.8N  73.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N  61.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 14-Sep-2004 02:42:31 UTC