Hurricane IVAN

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HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  57
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092004
1500Z THU SEP 16 2004
 
AT 10 CDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.  ALL COASTAL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED
ELSEWHERE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N  87.5W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE  45SE  35SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 65NE 125SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 250SE 125SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 350SE 250SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N  87.5W AT 16/1500Z...INLAND
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N  87.7W...INLAND
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 33.6N  86.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 35.2N  85.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 36.5N  84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 37.0N  82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 37.0N  81.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N  87.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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