Hurricane IVAN

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HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  56
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092004
0900Z THU SEP 16 2004
 
AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FROM
WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY...HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
ALSO...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO
GRAND ISLE HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA
TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA AND FOR THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND
ISLE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N  87.7W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  947 MB
EYE DIAMETER  35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE  90SE  75SW  50NW.
50 KT.......125NE 125SE 100SW  75NW.
34 KT.......225NE 250SE 125SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 300SE 350SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N  87.7W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N  87.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 32.5N  87.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...125NE 200SE 125SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.7N  86.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...125NE 125SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 36.0N  85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 37.5N  83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 37.5N  83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 36.5N  83.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N  87.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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