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Hurricane IVAN


ZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  53
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092004
1500Z WED SEP 15 2004
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.  A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
WEST OF GRAND ISLE.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA TO
YANKEETOWN FLORIDA.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N  88.0W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  939 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE  90SE  75SW  75NW.
50 KT.......150NE 100SE  90SW 100NW.
34 KT.......225NE 250SE 150SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 400SW 325NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N  88.0W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N  87.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 28.9N  88.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 90NE  90SE  75SW  75NW.
50 KT...150NE 100SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...225NE 250SE 150SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 31.0N  87.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...125NE 200SE 125SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 32.8N  87.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  70 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 34.0N  86.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.5N  84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 35.5N  84.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 35.5N  84.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N  88.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 15-Sep-2004 14:32:29 UTC