| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

---

Hurricane IVAN (Text)

ZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  50
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092004
2100Z TUE SEP 14 2004
 
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FROM GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA TO APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW
ORLEANS AREA AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.  A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE WARNING AREA.
 
THE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
WEST OF GRAND ISLE.
 
AT 4 PM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY LOUISIANA TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF
APALACHICOLA TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.
 
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...ALL WARNINGS IN MEXICO AND CUBA HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS.
 
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N  86.6W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  929 MB
EYE DIAMETER  40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE  90SE  60SW  75NW.
50 KT.......175NE 125SE  75SW 125NW.
34 KT.......225NE 175SE 150SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 240SW 350NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N  86.6W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N  86.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 25.3N  87.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  75NW.
50 KT...175NE 125SE  75SW 125NW.
34 KT...225NE 175SE 150SW 200NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 27.2N  88.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  75NW.
50 KT...175NE 125SE  75SW 125NW.
34 KT...225NE 175SE 150SW 200NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 29.3N  88.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
50 KT...175NE 125SE  75SW  90NW.
34 KT...225NE 175SE 150SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 31.5N  88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE 175SE 125SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 34.5N  86.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 35.5N  84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 35.5N  84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N  86.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
$$
NNNN