Hurricane IVAN

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HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092004
0300Z SUN SEP 12 2004
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.  A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE
WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA.
 
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N  80.0W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  910 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  75SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 180SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N  80.0W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N  79.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 19.0N  81.0W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
50 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 20.3N  82.4W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
50 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.6N  83.7W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
50 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.3N  84.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 27.0N  85.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 31.0N  85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 36.0N  83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N  80.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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