Hurricane IVAN

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HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092004
0900Z SAT SEP 11 2004
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CABO CRUZ TO CIENFUEGOS.  TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA FROM
SATIAGO DE CUBA TO CIENFUEGOS.
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS DISCONTINUED FOR HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
 
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  78.0W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  923 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 180SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  78.0W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  77.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 18.3N  79.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 19.3N  80.1W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 20.6N  81.4W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.0N  82.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 25.9N  83.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 30.5N  84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 36.0N  83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N  78.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
 
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