Hurricane IVAN

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HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092004
2100Z THU SEP 09 2004
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
 
AT 5 PM...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO PERDENALES.  A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM PALENQUE WESTWARD TO BARAHONA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA FROM
MATANZAS EASTWARD.
 
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  72.5W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  921 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT.......150NE  75SE  60SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 140SE 140SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  72.5W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N  72.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 16.1N  74.2W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  35SW  35NW.
50 KT...125NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE  75SE  75SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 17.5N  76.2W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  35SW  35NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE  75SE  60SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 18.8N  78.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  35SW  35NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE  75SE  70SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 19.7N  79.3W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE  75SE  60SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.5N  81.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE  75SE  60SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 25.0N  83.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 28.0N  83.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N  72.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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