ZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004 2100Z TUE SEP 07 2004 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. VINCENT...THE GRENADINES...AND GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR TOBAGO HAS BEEN DONGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...MARTINIQUE... AND ST. LUCIA...TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO AND ARUBA. AT 5 PM AST...2100Z..THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 62.0W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 15SE 15SW 60NW. 50 KT.......100NE 75SE 25SW 100NW. 34 KT.......140NE 125SE 30SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 140SE 140SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 62.0W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 61.2W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 12.5N 64.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 15SE 0SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 75SE 25SW 100NW. 34 KT...140NE 125SE 30SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.5N 67.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 15SE 15SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 75SE 25SW 100NW. 34 KT...140NE 125SE 30SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.7N 70.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 15SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 75SE 25SW 100NW. 34 KT...150NE 125SE 50SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.0N 73.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 25SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 125SE 125SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.0N 77.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 100NW. 34 KT...150NE 125SE 75SW 125NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 20.0N 81.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 23.0N 84.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 62.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 07-Sep-2004 20:52:24 UTC