Hurricane IVAN

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HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092004
2100Z MON SEP 06 2004
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...ST. LUCIA...ST.
VINCENT...THE GRENADINES...AND GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IVAN.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N  55.3W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  19 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE   0SE   0SW  45NW.
50 KT....... 75NE  20SE  20SW  75NW.
34 KT.......120NE  50SE  50SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N  55.3W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N  54.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 12.3N  58.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE   0SE   0SW  45NW.
50 KT... 75NE  20SE  20SW  75NW.
34 KT...120NE  50SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 13.2N  61.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  20SE  20SW  45NW.
50 KT... 75NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
34 KT...120NE  75SE  75SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 14.0N  64.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  45SE  30SW  45NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  75NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.0N  67.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  30SW  45NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.5N  72.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  75NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 20.0N  76.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 23.0N  80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N  55.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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