ZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004 0900Z SUN SEP 05 2004 INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 44.3W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 44.3W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 43.4W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 10.3N 47.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 11.3N 50.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 12.2N 54.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 13.1N 57.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 14.5N 63.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 17.0N 69.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 20.5N 73.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.7N 44.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 05-Sep-2004 08:42:26 UTC