Hurricane FRANCES

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HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062004
1500Z SUN SEP 05 2004
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO
DESTIN.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...ON THE WEST COAST...FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTHWARD
AROUND THE PENINSULA TO DEERFIELD BEACH...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO
ALTAMAHA SOUND.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...ALL WARNINGS FOR THE BAHAMAS HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER
BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N  81.2W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  80SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT.......175NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..350NE 350SE 200SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N  81.2W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N  80.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 28.2N  82.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 29.0N  83.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 30.3N  85.2W...MOVING INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 125SE 125SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 32.0N  86.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 35.0N  85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 38.5N  82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 42.0N  79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.7N  81.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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