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Hurricane FRANCES


ZCZC MIATCMAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062004
1500Z FRI SEP 03 2004
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.  A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH
OF FLAGLER BEACH NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z..THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N  76.7W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  957 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE  75SE  40SW  75NW.
50 KT.......120NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.
34 KT.......160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..350NE 180SE 180SW 350NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N  76.7W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N  76.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 26.3N  77.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 75NE  75SE  40SW  75NW.
50 KT...120NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 27.0N  79.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 75NE  75SE  40SW  75NW.
50 KT...120NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 27.5N  80.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
50 KT...120NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 28.5N  81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...120NE  90SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 30.5N  83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 33.5N  85.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 38.0N  84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N  76.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 03-Sep-2004 14:52:23 UTC