Hurricane FRANCES

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HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062004
0300Z FRI SEP 03 2004
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD
TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
 
AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N  75.4W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  948 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
50 KT.......120NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT.......160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..350NE 180SE 180SW 350NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N  75.4W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N  74.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 25.2N  76.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
50 KT...120NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 26.1N  77.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
50 KT...120NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 26.8N  79.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
50 KT...120NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 27.6N  80.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 28.4N  83.0W...OVER GULF OF MEXICO
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 31.5N  85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 35.0N  86.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N  75.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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