Hurricane FRANCES

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HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062004
1500Z WED SEP 01 2004
 
AT 11 AM...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WHICH INCLUDES...
CAT...EXUMAS...LONG ISLANDS...RUM CAY AND SAN SALVADOR AND A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WHICH INCLUDES
THE ABACOS...ANDROS...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND
BAHAMA AND NEW PROVIDENCE.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...WHICH INCLUDES ACKLINS...CROOKED...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA
AND RAGGED ISLANDS...AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THE NORTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA GORDA WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO BAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N  69.8W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  937 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE  55SE  45SW  60NW.
50 KT.......120NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
34 KT.......160NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..275NE 160SE 160SW 275NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N  69.8W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N  69.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.6N  71.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  55SE  45SW  60NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 24.0N  74.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  55SE  45SW  60NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 25.0N  76.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
50 KT...120NE 110SE  90SW 110NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 26.0N  77.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT...120NE 110SE  90SW 110NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 27.5N  80.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT...120NE 110SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE  90SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 29.0N  82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 31.6N  84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N  69.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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