Hurricane FRANCES

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HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062004
1500Z TUE AUG 31 2004
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...WHICH INCLUDES
ACKLINS...CROOKED...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA AND RAGGED ISLANDS...AND FOR
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHICH INCLUDES CAT...EXUMAS...LONG ISLANDS...RUM
CAY AND SAN SALVADOR.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST. THOMAS...ST.
JOHN AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA GORDA WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO BAY AND
HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH SOUTH OF PUNTA GORDA.
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED FOR ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ST. CROIX.
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST
MAARTEN...ST EUSTATIUS...SABA AND GUADELOUPE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N  64.0W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  950 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  45SE  35SW  60NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..275NE 170SE 170SW 275NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N  64.0W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N  63.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.4N  66.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  45SE  35SW  60NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 21.5N  68.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.5N  71.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 23.5N  73.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW 100NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 25.5N  76.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW 100NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 27.5N  79.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 30.5N  81.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N  64.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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