Hurricane FRANCES

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HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062004
2100Z MON AUG 30 2004
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD
ISLANDS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST.
KITTS...ST. EUSTATIUS AND SABA.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.  THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE
WILL LIKELY UPGRADE THIS WATCH TO A WARNING LATER TODAY.
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST.
THOMAS...ST JOHN AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ST.
CROIX.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  60.0W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  45SE  30SW  60NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  60SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE  80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 150SE 150SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  60.0W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N  59.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 19.7N  62.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  45SE  30SW  60NW.
50 KT... 90NE  60SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 20.2N  64.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 21.0N  67.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 22.0N  70.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 24.0N  74.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 25.5N  77.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 27.5N  80.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N  60.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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