Hurricane FRANCES

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HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062004
0900Z SAT AUG 28 2004
 
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N  51.3W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  962 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N  51.3W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N  50.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.0N  52.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.0N  54.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.0N  56.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.5N  58.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 65NE  65SE  65SW  65NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 130SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 21.0N  63.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 22.0N  68.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 23.0N  72.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N  51.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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