Hurricane FRANCES

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HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062004
2100Z FRI AUG 27 2004
 
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  49.8W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  962 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 45NE  35SE  35SW  45NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  80SE  80SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  49.8W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N  49.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.9N  51.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.9N  52.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 55NE  45SE  45SW  55NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.9N  54.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 110SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.7N  56.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 65NE  55SE  55SW  65NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 20.6N  60.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 130SW 140NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 21.5N  64.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 22.5N  69.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N  49.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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