Hurricane FRANCES

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HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062004
1500Z FRI AUG 27 2004
 
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  49.0W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  65SE  65SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  49.0W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N  48.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.8N  50.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 45NE  35SE  35SW  45NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.0N  52.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.0N  53.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 55NE  55SE  55SW  55NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.9N  55.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.2N  58.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 65NE  65SE  55SW  65NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 115SW 130NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 21.0N  62.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 22.0N  67.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N  49.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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