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Tropical Depression FIVE


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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052004
2100Z FRI AUG 13 2004
 
WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY
SATURDAY MORNING. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR  8.9N  46.2W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  17 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  8.9N  46.2W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  8.7N  45.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z  9.5N  48.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE   0SE   0SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 10.3N  52.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE   0SE   0SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 11.1N  55.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE   0SE   0SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 12.1N  59.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 75NE  20SE  20SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.0N  65.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  30SE  30SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 16.0N  71.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 18.5N  77.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  8.9N  46.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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