Hurricane CHARLEY

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HURRICANE CHARLEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032004
0900Z FRI AUG 13 2004
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER.  A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
PROVINCES OF WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE
LA HABANA...MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
AT 5 AM...0900Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA
AND GEORGIA COASTS FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND
GEORGIA.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG
THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE
SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF
NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND
GEORGIA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.
 
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N  82.9W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE  45SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 140SE  60SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N  82.9W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  82.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.3N  82.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 29.8N  82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 33.0N  81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 140SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 38.0N  78.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 45.5N  73.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N  82.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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