Hurricane CHARLEY

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HURRICANE CHARLEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032004
2100Z THU AUG 12 2004
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TO BAYPORT. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS
TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST
CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO BAYPORT. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT.  A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
THE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
FROM NORTH OF BAYPORT NORTHWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA
MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING ALL OF
FLORIDA BAY.  AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS FROM JUPITER INLET
NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF
WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.  AT 5 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N  81.9W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE  40SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 140SE  60SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N  81.9W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N  81.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 23.1N  82.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.5N  83.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 30.5N  82.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 34.2N  80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 42.0N  75.0W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 48.5N  65.0W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N  81.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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