Tropical Depression TWO

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022004
2100Z TUE AUG 03 2004
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENTS WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
RESPONSIBILITIES IN THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE ISSUED THE FOLLOWING
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ST LUCIA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE...MARTINIQUE
...DOMINICA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS.
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
 
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS NORTH OF ST. LUCIA.
  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N  56.6W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  20 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N  56.6W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  55.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.0N  59.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.5N  63.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  25SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.5N  66.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  25SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.0N  68.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.5N  71.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 26.5N  71.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 31.0N  70.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N  56.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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