Hurricane ALEX

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HURRICANE ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012004
0900Z WED AUG 04 2004
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N  71.1W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  60 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  50SE  30SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  75SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 120SE  75SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 250SE 175SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N  71.1W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N  72.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 38.2N  68.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  50SE  30SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  75SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT... 60NE 120SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 39.8N  63.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  50SE  25SW   0NW.
50 KT...  0NE 100SE  75SW   0NW.
34 KT... 25NE 200SE 150SW  25NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 42.0N  58.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  50SE  25SW   0NW.
50 KT...  0NE 100SE  75SW   0NW.
34 KT... 25NE 200SE 150SW  25NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 44.5N  50.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 100SE  75SW   0NW.
34 KT... 25NE 200SE 150SW  25NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 45.0N  31.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 100SE  75SW   0NW.
34 KT... 25NE 200SE 150SW  25NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 45.0N  19.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 48.0N  10.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.1N  71.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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