ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 3 PM PDT MON OCT 25 2004 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E. THE INTENSITY OF 30 KT AND CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB ARE BASED ON OFFSHORE WINDS OF 20 KT FROM MAZATLAN LOCATED 130 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER...AND A PRESSURE OF 1005.4 MB FROM LA PAZ LOCATED 60 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ORGANIZATION AND DEPTH IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH NUMEROUS CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C NOTED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/16. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT LIES EAST-WEST ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD ALSO HELP TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE AND ITS EVENTUAL REMNANTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF ALTATA MEXICO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG WITH LAND INTERACTION...SHOULD INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS ALREADY ENOUGH COLD CONVECTION TO POSSIBLY ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO REACH MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STORM STRENGTH JUST PRIOR TO IT MAKING LANDFALL. NOTE...THE PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO LIKELY SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO LATER TONIGHT...AND INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2200Z 23.3N 108.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 26/0600Z 25.6N 107.9W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 26/1800Z 28.6N 105.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 36HR VT 27/0600Z 32.0N 102.7W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 48HR VT 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 25-Oct-2004 23:06:38 UTC