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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
3 PM PDT MON OCT 25 2004
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS DEVELOPED INTO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E. THE INTENSITY OF 30 KT AND CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 1004 MB ARE BASED ON OFFSHORE WINDS OF 20 KT FROM
MAZATLAN LOCATED 130 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER...AND A PRESSURE OF
1005.4 MB FROM LA PAZ LOCATED 60 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ORGANIZATION AND DEPTH IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH NUMEROUS
CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C NOTED.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/16. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT LIES EAST-WEST ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. AN
APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD ALSO
HELP TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE AND ITS EVENTUAL REMNANTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE U.S. SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE GENERAL
VICINITY OF ALTATA MEXICO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...ALONG WITH LAND INTERACTION...SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS ALREADY ENOUGH COLD
CONVECTION TO POSSIBLY ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO REACH MINIMAL
TROPICAL STORM STORM STRENGTH JUST PRIOR TO IT MAKING LANDFALL.

NOTE...THE PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO LIKELY SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO
LATER TONIGHT...AND INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. 
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/2200Z 23.3N 108.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 25.6N 107.9W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     26/1800Z 28.6N 105.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 36HR VT     27/0600Z 32.0N 102.7W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 48HR VT     27/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 25-Oct-2004 23:06:38 UTC