Tropical Storm LESTER

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TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED OCT 13 2004
 
THE BIG QUESTION CONCERNING LESTER THIS MORNING IS...WHERE IS THE
CENTER?  RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM ACAPULCO LAST NIGHT SUGGESTED THAT
THE CENTER PASSED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THAT CITY...AND LESTER
SHOULD NOW BE LOCATED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO.  HOWEVER
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ACAPULCO IMPLY THAT THE CENTER IS TO THE
EAST OF THE STATION.  THE WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM ACAPULCO MIGHT NOT
BE REPRESENTATIVE BECAUSE OF TOPGRAPHIC INFLUENCES.  CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ACAPULCO RADAR DO NOT DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER.  THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES ARE ALSO AMBIGUOUS...SINCE THEY
SUGGEST THAT THE BROAD LOW TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LESTER IS THE
DOMINANT CIRCULATION.  GIVEN THE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE CENTER
POSITION...THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AND IT IS
ASSUMED THAT LESTER IS STATIONARY AT THE MOMENT.  THE STEERING
PATTERN...A ZONALLY-ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND TRACK GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD DEVELOP SOON.
 
THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE CURRENT AND
FORECAST INTENSITY.  SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED...
THE WINDS ARE REDUCED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  IF THE
CIRCULATION REMAINS INTACT...AND THE CYCLONE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
COAST...STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY.  THAT IS THE SCENARIO SHOWN IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.  HOWEVER...LESTER MAY HAVE BECOME SO DISRUPTED
BY ITS INTERACTION WITH LAND THAT IT WILL NOT SURVIVE.
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE LESTER THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER
ESTIMATE OF THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/1500Z 16.8N 100.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     14/0000Z 16.9N 101.0W    50 KT
 24HR VT     14/1200Z 17.0N 101.9W    55 KT
 36HR VT     15/0000Z 17.0N 103.0W    60 KT
 48HR VT     15/1200Z 17.0N 104.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     16/1200Z 17.0N 106.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     17/1200Z 17.0N 108.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     18/1200Z 17.0N 110.0W    65 KT
 
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