Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE OCT 12 2004

FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES DO NOT INDICATE MUCH INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION...SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT.  WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONE IS NEAR THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...WITH INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW FURTHER WEST.  THIS IMPLIES INCREASING SHEAR ALONG THE
PROJECTED PATH OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH IS ALSO SHOWN BY THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE.  BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...AND THE FACT THAT THE
DEPRESSION HAS FAILED TO STRENGTHEN THUS FAR...WE HAVE BACKED OFF A
LITTLE ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  

EVEN WITH VISIBLE PICTURES...THE CENTER POSITION IS UNCERTAIN. 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/6.  RADIOSONDE OBSERVATIONS
OVER MEXICO SHOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE MORE OR LESS MAINTAINS THIS
REGIME FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK MODEL
FORECAST SUITE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER
THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THIS TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER
OFFSHORE...BUT THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST AND THE 34-KT WIND RADII
REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/1500Z 15.6N  98.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     13/0000Z 16.0N  99.7W    30 KT
 24HR VT     13/1200Z 16.3N 100.4W    35 KT
 36HR VT     14/0000Z 16.7N 101.2W    45 KT
 48HR VT     14/1200Z 16.9N 102.1W    55 KT
 72HR VT     15/1200Z 17.2N 104.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     16/1200Z 17.5N 106.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     17/1200Z 18.0N 107.5W    65 KT
 
 
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