ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE OCT 05 2004 KAY IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN UNDER STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR WITH THE CENTER REMOVED FROM DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB ARE DROPPING AS FAST AS DVORAK RULES ALLOW. GIVEN THE POOR SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY AS LONG AS THE NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR PERSISTS. HOWEVER...SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL ABATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A COMEBACK. THIS SCENARIO IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. ALTERNATIVELY... THE DEPRESSION COULD SPIN DOWN INTO A REMNANT LOW AND BE ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST. SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM...MORE WEIGHT IS BEING PLACED ON THE BAMS MODEL WHICH IS OFTEN USEFUL FOR WEAK SYSTEMS. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RATHER POOR...CONSISTENTLY MOVING KAY SLOWLY AND TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH. THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND BAMS. FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 15.5N 117.1W 25 KT 12HR VT 06/1200Z 15.8N 118.3W 25 KT 24HR VT 07/0000Z 16.1N 120.4W 25 KT 36HR VT 07/1200Z 16.2N 122.4W 30 KT 48HR VT 08/0000Z 16.3N 124.5W 30 KT 72HR VT 09/0000Z 16.5N 128.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 10/0000Z 16.5N 131.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 11/0000Z 16.5N 134.0W 30 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 06-Oct-2004 02:36:26 UTC