Tropical Storm KAY

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE OCT 05 2004
 
KAY IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN UNDER STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR WITH THE
CENTER REMOVED FROM DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION.  T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB ARE DROPPING AS FAST AS
DVORAK RULES ALLOW.  GIVEN THE POOR SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY AS LONG AS THE NORTHERLY WIND
SHEAR PERSISTS.  HOWEVER...SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL
ABATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A COMEBACK. 
THIS SCENARIO IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.  ALTERNATIVELY... THE
DEPRESSION COULD SPIN DOWN INTO A REMNANT LOW AND BE ABSORBED INTO
THE LARGER DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST.  

SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME A SHALLOW
SYSTEM...MORE WEIGHT IS BEING PLACED ON THE BAMS MODEL WHICH IS
OFTEN USEFUL FOR WEAK SYSTEMS.  THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RATHER POOR...CONSISTENTLY MOVING KAY SLOWLY AND TOO FAR TO THE
SOUTH.  THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND BAMS.  
 
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0300Z 15.5N 117.1W    25 KT
 12HR VT     06/1200Z 15.8N 118.3W    25 KT
 24HR VT     07/0000Z 16.1N 120.4W    25 KT
 36HR VT     07/1200Z 16.2N 122.4W    30 KT
 48HR VT     08/0000Z 16.3N 124.5W    30 KT
 72HR VT     09/0000Z 16.5N 128.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     10/0000Z 16.5N 131.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     11/0000Z 16.5N 134.0W    30 KT
 
 
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