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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE OCT 05 2004
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS MORNING. AFTER A
BRIEF BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...
THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS DECREASED AND TOPS HAVE WARMED
SLIGHTLY. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB
...AND 30 KT FROM BOTH SAB AND AFWA. THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT
30 KT UNTIL A BETTER DEFINED CONVECTIVE PATTERN PERSISTS. THIS
INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH 30-KT UNFLAGGED WIND VECTORS NOTED IN
A 05/0126Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 275/11. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY WITH THE RECENT QUIKSCAT AND 05/0431Z
TRMM MICROWAVE POSITIONS. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE
TD-14E WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS A WEAK CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST A
TAD SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL
AND DEEP BAM MODELS. THE NOGAPS SOLUTION OF TAKING THE CYCLONE
NORTHEASTWARD WAS DISCOUNTED DUE TO THE DEEP EASTERLY LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL FLOW AND THE MODERATE NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.
 
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED. AFTERWARDS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO ONLY
5-10 KT...BUT THE CYCLONE WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY DRY
MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH...ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED...WHICH IS STILL A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS AND GFDL
INTENSITY MODELS ARE FORECASTING. THE WIND RADII WERE DECREASED DUE
TO A LOWER INTENSITY EARLY ON THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE LARGER
WIND RADII IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE THROUGH 36H IS DUE TO THE
NORTHERLY SHEAR EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0900Z 14.2N 114.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     05/1800Z 14.3N 116.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     06/0600Z 14.3N 118.6W    35 KT
 36HR VT     06/1800Z 14.3N 121.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     07/0600Z 14.2N 123.1W    40 KT
 72HR VT     08/0600Z 14.0N 127.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     09/0600Z 14.0N 131.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     10/0600Z 14.5N 135.0W    55 KT
 
 
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