Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE OCT 05 2004
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS MORNING. AFTER A
BRIEF BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...
THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS DECREASED AND TOPS HAVE WARMED
SLIGHTLY. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB
...AND 30 KT FROM BOTH SAB AND AFWA. THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT
30 KT UNTIL A BETTER DEFINED CONVECTIVE PATTERN PERSISTS. THIS
INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH 30-KT UNFLAGGED WIND VECTORS NOTED IN
A 05/0126Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 275/11. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY WITH THE RECENT QUIKSCAT AND 05/0431Z
TRMM MICROWAVE POSITIONS. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE
TD-14E WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS A WEAK CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST A
TAD SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL
AND DEEP BAM MODELS. THE NOGAPS SOLUTION OF TAKING THE CYCLONE
NORTHEASTWARD WAS DISCOUNTED DUE TO THE DEEP EASTERLY LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL FLOW AND THE MODERATE NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.
 
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED. AFTERWARDS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO ONLY
5-10 KT...BUT THE CYCLONE WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY DRY
MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH...ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED...WHICH IS STILL A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS AND GFDL
INTENSITY MODELS ARE FORECASTING. THE WIND RADII WERE DECREASED DUE
TO A LOWER INTENSITY EARLY ON THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE LARGER
WIND RADII IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE THROUGH 36H IS DUE TO THE
NORTHERLY SHEAR EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0900Z 14.2N 114.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     05/1800Z 14.3N 116.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     06/0600Z 14.3N 118.6W    35 KT
 36HR VT     06/1800Z 14.3N 121.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     07/0600Z 14.2N 123.1W    40 KT
 72HR VT     08/0600Z 14.0N 127.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     09/0600Z 14.0N 131.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     10/0600Z 14.5N 135.0W    55 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 05-Oct-2004 08:36:26 UTC