Hurricane JAVIER

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN SEP 19 2004
 
JAVIER MADE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING
SOUTH OF SAN IGNACIO. THE GFS FROM YESTERDAY HAD THE RIGHT IDEA..
KEEPING THE SYSTEM'S MOTION SLOW UNTIL LANDFALL AND ALLOWING IT TO
WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION. THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OF JAVIER IS FILLED WITH COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS AND HAS
NOT PRODUCED ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FOR OVER 24 HOURS.
THEREFORE IT HAS DISSIPATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ALONG WITH SOME TOPOGRAPHICALLY-FORCED CONVECTION OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND PLENTY
OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR...REGENERATION IS UNLIKELY.

THE REMNANT LOW OF JAVIER IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH.  THE MAIN DANGER WITH THE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE INLAND
FLOODING...SPREADING FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH NORTHWEST MEXICO
INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.  THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AFTER 24 HOURS.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THIS SYSTEM. BECAUSE OF THE FLOODING THREAT TO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES...FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION
CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP3 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ33 KWNH.

FORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/1500Z 27.5N 112.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 29.3N 111.8W    20 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 31.5N 111.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN