ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SAT SEP 18 2004 JAVIER REMAINS A LOW CLOUD SWIRL THIS EVENING WITH NO BURST OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION THIS EVENING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM SAB AND 25 KT FROM AFWA. IN ADDITION...AN AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SITE NEAR CABO SAN LAZARO SUPPOSEDLY WITHIN THE RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REPORTED PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS OF 42 KM/HR...23 KNOTS AROUND 1930 UTC. SINCE THEN THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 35-40 KM/HR...20 KNOTS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION ...JAVIER IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING TO THE RIGHT AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/10. MODELS ARE CONTINUING WITH THEIR TREND OF TRACKING JAVIER AT A CONSISTENT 10-12 KNOTS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SEA OF CORTEZ BEFORE DISSIPATION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA IN 36 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TOMMORROW AND MONDAY AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM JAVIER INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST. FORECASTER COBB/JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 25.3N 113.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 26.9N 113.3W 25 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 20/0000Z 29.2N 112.6W 25 KT...SEA OF CORTEZ 36HR VT 20/1200Z 32.0N 111.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 48HR VT 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 19-Sep-2004 02:34:56 UTC