Hurricane JAVIER

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT SEP 18 2004
 
JAVIER REMAINS A LOW CLOUD SWIRL THIS EVENING WITH NO BURST OF ANY
DEEP CONVECTION THIS EVENING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35
KT FROM SAB AND 25 KT FROM AFWA. IN ADDITION...AN AUTOMATED SURFACE
OBSERVING SITE NEAR CABO SAN LAZARO SUPPOSEDLY WITHIN THE RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REPORTED PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS OF 42
KM/HR...23 KNOTS AROUND 1930 UTC. SINCE THEN THE WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO 35-40 KM/HR...20 KNOTS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION
...JAVIER IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR
THIS ADVISORY. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA.

THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING TO THE RIGHT AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER
FORWARD SPEED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/10. MODELS ARE CONTINUING
WITH THEIR TREND OF TRACKING JAVIER AT A CONSISTENT 10-12 KNOTS 
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
THE SEA OF CORTEZ BEFORE DISSIPATION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF 
NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA IN 36 HOURS.  HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TOMMORROW AND MONDAY AS
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM JAVIER INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST.
 
FORECASTER COBB/JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0300Z 25.3N 113.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     19/1200Z 26.9N 113.3W    25 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     20/0000Z 29.2N 112.6W    25 KT...SEA OF CORTEZ
 36HR VT     20/1200Z 32.0N 111.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 48HR VT     21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

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