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Hurricane JAVIER


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT SEP 18 2004
 
JAVIER IS DEGENERATING INTO A LOW CLOUD SWIRL WITH NO DEEP
CONVECTION.  AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF
ABOUT 40 KT AND IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE CYCLONE IS CONTINUING TO
WEAKEN.  IN ADDITION SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE PLUMMETING AS FAST AS
THE DVORAK RULES ALLOW SINCE THERE CONTINUES TO BE NO DEEP
CONVECTION.  THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE
QUIKSCAT AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  

THE STORM HAS MADE THE EXPECTED TURN TO THE NORTH AND IS NOW
ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING 350/7.  THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS THAT
MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER IN ACCELERATING JAVIER INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS
SHIFT.  THE GFS WEAKENS THE CYCLONE BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY
BEFORE LANDFALL... A SCENARIO WHICH COULD HAPPEN IF THE MOTION
STAYS SLOW AND CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN THIS EVENING.  

HIGH-RESOLUTION SST ANALYSES FROM NCEP SHOW THAT JAVIER IS
PARALLELING THE 26C ISOTHERM.  ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS INCREASING.... IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER BURST OF CONVECTION COULD FIRE TONIGHT...
KEEPING JAVIER NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AT LANDFALL.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES WITH THIS CONSERVATIVE SCENARIO ALTHOUGH IT
IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE STORM COULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION
BEFORE LANDFALL.  REGARDLESS OF INTENSITY...JAVIER'S MOISTURE
SHOULD ENHANCE HEAVY RAINS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
TOMORROW.
 
FORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/2100Z 24.4N 113.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     19/0600Z 25.9N 113.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     19/1800Z 28.7N 113.0W    30 KT...OVER SEA OF CORTEZ
 36HR VT     20/0600Z 31.5N 112.4W    25 KT...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     20/1800Z 34.5N 111.5W    20 KT...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Saturday, 18-Sep-2004 20:44:49 UTC