Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane JAVIER


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT SEP 18 2004
 
JAVIER IS WEAKENING RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS ALL DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS DISSIPATED.  WATER VAPOR IMAGES
SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE CYCLONE WITH PLENTY OF MIDDLE TO
UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR...LIKELY ACCELERATING THE WEAKENING PROCESS.
SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE DECREASING QUICKLY AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT... A BLEND OF THE T/CI
NUMBERS FROM TAFB.
 
A RECENT TRMM PASS AT 1200Z SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL POSITION HAS
BEEN A LITTLE WEST OF OUR PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.  THE NEW MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 330/7.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER
WEST IN ACCORDANCE WITH RECENT MOVEMENT AND IS JUST WEST OF THE
GLOBAL CONSENSUS.  THE GFS MODEL IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER AS IT
DELAYS LANDFALL UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  IF THE GFS IS CORRECT
JAVIER MIGHT NOT BE A TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT REACHES WEST-CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA.
 
STEADY WEAKENING IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...DRY MID-LEVEL AIR...AND DECREASING 
WATER TEMPERATURES.  AFTERWARD INTERACTIONS WITH LAND WILL BRING
UPON A MORE RAPID WEAKENING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...JAVIER WILL
LIKELY BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AS EARLY
AS SUNDAY.
 
FORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/1500Z 23.7N 113.4W    50 KT
 12HR VT     19/0000Z 25.1N 113.7W    45 KT
 24HR VT     19/1200Z 28.1N 113.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     20/0000Z 31.5N 112.8W    25 KT...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     20/1200Z 35.0N 111.5W    20 KT...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 18-Sep-2004 14:34:48 UTC