Hurricane JAVIER

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HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT SEP 18 2004
 
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT JAVIER IS
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY. CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED CONSIDERABLY AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME QUITE RAGGED.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT MAY BE SOMEWHAT GENEROUS...BUT IT IS
CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF THE T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM ALL THREE
SATELLITE AGENCIES.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/7. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING SINCE JAVIER HAS
BASICALLY REMAINED ON TRACK. JAVIER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
MORE TOWARD THE NORTH AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MEXICAN SUBTROPICAL HIGH. BY 24-36 HOURS... A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST AND ACT TO TURN JAVIER NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND BRING THE
CENTER ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA...THE NORTHERN SEA OF CORTEZ
...AND INTO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA.  THE
FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...DRY MID-LEVEL AIR...AND COOLER
WATER. JAVIER MAY NOT BE A TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT REACHES
WEST-CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA.
 
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...JAVIER WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES PERHAPS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0900Z 23.3N 113.0W    65 KT
 12HR VT     18/1800Z 24.5N 113.4W    55 KT
 24HR VT     19/0600Z 26.8N 113.6W    40 KT...INLAND WESTERN BAJA
 36HR VT     19/1800Z 29.3N 113.0W    30 KT...OVER SEA OF CORTEZ
 48HR VT     20/0600Z 33.6N 112.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 72HR VT     21/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
 
 
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