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Hurricane JAVIER (Text)

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HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI SEP 17 2004
 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING INDICATES THAT 
CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION EARLER SEEN
IN THE CDO PATTERN ARE NOW WARMING...SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE 
IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77
KT FROM TAFB AND 65 KT FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
DECREASED TO 75 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 330/6. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. THE OFFICAIL
FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST BASED ON THE
MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION AS NOTED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE 
IMAGERY. JAVIER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MEXICAN SUBTROPICAL HIGH FOR 36 
HOURS...AND THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ON THIS TRACK...JAVIER IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAJA SPUR IN
24-30 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE U.S.
DESERT SOUTHWEST IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  

GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A
MORE RAPID WEAKENING AS JAVIER MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATER AND
UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 

ON THE FORECAST TRACK...JAVIER WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES PERHAPS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.
 
FORECASTER STEWART/AGUIRRE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0300Z 22.7N 112.6W    75 KT
 12HR VT     18/1200Z 23.8N 113.2W    65 KT
 24HR VT     19/0000Z 25.9N 113.5W    55 KT
 36HR VT     19/1200Z 28.5N 113.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     20/0000Z 31.8N 113.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     21/0000Z 39.0N 111.3W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     22/0000Z...DISSIPATED 
 
 
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