Hurricane JAVIER

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HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI SEP 17 2004
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE EYE OF JAVIER IS NO LONGER
VISIBLE...WITH THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN BECOMING INCREASINGLY
ASYMMETRIC IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  IN FACT...A MICROWAVE PASS
AT 0954Z SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF JAVIER IS SOUTHWEST OF THE
SATELLITE FIXES.  ALTHOUGH THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS WELL-
ESTABLISHED...CIMSS ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT SOUTHERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT
15 KT IS AFFECTING THE CYCLONE.  T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE
DECREASING AND THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 95 KT. 
 
JAVIER CONTINUES AT ABOUT 325/7 AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.   A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO ERODE THE RIDGE
OVER MEXICO.  THIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD INDUCE A MORE NORTH-
NORTHWEST MOTION SOON THEN MORE TO THE NORTH BEYOND 24 HOURS...
BRINGING THE HURRICANE CLOSE TO THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE GFS IS THE
LEFT-MOST SOLUTION KEEPING THE CENTER OFFSHORE THRU 48 HOURS WHILE
THE UKMET MODEL IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER WITH JAVIER ONSHORE IN ABOUT
30 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS THE CENTER NEARING THE MEXICAN
COASTLINE IN A LITTLE MORE THAN 36 HOURS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
CONU.  HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE INITIAL
POSITION...WE ARE HOLDING OFF RECOMMENDING WATCHES FOR MEXICO UNTIL
A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL POSITION IS OBTAINED FROM VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES.  

THE INTENSITY FORECAST SEEMS A LITTLE MORE STRAIGHT-FORWARD WITH
JAVIER CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM EARLY TOMORROW.  A COMBINATION OF
THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE
UNTIL LANDFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA IN THE 36-48 HOUR PERIOD.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS HELD UP A LITTLE HIGHER THAN SHIPS IN THE 36
HOUR TIMEFRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL
POSITION AND INTENSITY.  THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY.  
 
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/1500Z 21.8N 112.3W    95 KT
 12HR VT     18/0000Z 22.8N 113.0W    85 KT
 24HR VT     18/1200Z 24.4N 113.9W    75 KT
 36HR VT     19/0000Z 26.4N 114.3W    65 KT
 48HR VT     19/1200Z 29.5N 114.0W    40 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     20/1200Z 38.0N 112.5W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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