ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI SEP 17 2004 THE LATEST BD ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGES SHOW AN ASYMMETRICAL JAVIER. THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS DOMINATE THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND JAVIER LOOKS TO HAVE STRETCHED A BIT ALONG A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST LINE. INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA GIVE A CONSENSUS OF 100 KTS. THE UW-CIMSS ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE ALSO CONCURS WITH THE FORECAST CENTER ESTIMATES...HENCE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 100 KTS. INITIAL MOTION IS 325/7 KT AS JAVIER HAS MOVED IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION WITH AN OCCASIONAL WOBBLE. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MOVING JAVIER PARALLEL TO THE BAJA PENINSULA COASTLINE ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. BEYOND 48 HRS...JAVIER IS PROJECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD NEAR CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM A DEEPENING MID-LEVEL WEST COAST TROUGH BUILDS. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE VORTEX TRACKERS LOSE THE CIRCULATION OF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF JAVIER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE DYNAMIC MODEL CONSENSUS FROM 0-72 HRS AND BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME...ANY REMNANT CIRCULATION OF JAVIER WILL BE QUICKLY SWEPT WELL INTO THE WESTERN STATES. THE TRACK OF JAVIER WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IT INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. JAVIER WILL TRACK INTO MUCH COOLER SSTS AS IT NEARS CENTRAL BAJA AND AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES FROM THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THE SHIPS MODEL MAINTAINS JAVIER AT HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE 0-36 HR TIME FRAME AS IT STAYS IN ABOVE 25 DEGREE CELSIUS SSTS. BEYOND 36 HRS...THE SHEAR AND MUCH COOLER SSTS ARE VERY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND JAVIER RAPIDLY WEAKENS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS SCENARIO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE RE-ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 21.4N 111.7W 100 KT 12HR VT 17/1800Z 22.2N 112.3W 100 KT 24HR VT 18/0600Z 23.6N 113.2W 90 KT 36HR VT 18/1800Z 25.4N 114.0W 75 KT 48HR VT 19/0600Z 27.5N 114.1W 55 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 72HR VT 20/0600Z 33.0N 112.5W 30 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 96HR VT 21/0600Z...INLAND $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 17-Sep-2004 09:05:51 UTC