Hurricane JAVIER

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HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU SEP 16 2004
 
VISIBLE ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT THE 20 NM EYE IS BECOMING
CLOUD-FILLED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL INDICATES WELL DEVELOPED
OUTFLOW CHANNELS OVER THE NORTH AND SOUTH QUADRANTS. DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 102 KT FROM SAB
AND AFWA...AND 90 KT FROM TAFB. ENHANCED BD INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS
WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WEST
QUADRANT...AND THE DATA-T NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO 77 KT AND 90 KT.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO 95
KT...DESPITE THE IMPRESSIVE VISIBLE SATELLITE PRESENTATION. COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE JAVIER TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY BEYOND THE 48
HOUR PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS WHICH DECREASES JAVIER TO A 20 KT
REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 320/5 KT. AS HURRICANE IVAN CONTINUES ON A
NORTHWARD DRIFT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES...A BUILDING
MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST OVER MEXICO SHOULD INFLUENCE A
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. AROUND THE 72 HOUR PERIOD...A REDUCTION
IN SPEED AND A TURN TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. BEYOND
DAY 3...JAVIER SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND ULTIMATELY...WEAKEN TO A REMNANT
LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
IS BASED OFF OF THE CONU CONSENSUS.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/2100Z 20.1N 111.2W    95 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 20.9N 111.9W    90 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 22.0N 112.9W    85 KT
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 23.2N 113.9W    80 KT
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 24.7N 114.7W    70 KT
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 28.0N 115.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     20/1800Z 29.5N 115.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     21/1800Z 31.5N 113.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW 
 
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